Benefits of public awareness in mitigating cystic echinococcosis risk in Western China: A climate and socio-economic perspective
2
Issued Date
2025-07-01
Resource Type
eISSN
19352735
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-105010974820
Pubmed ID
40632802
Journal Title
Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases
Volume
19
Issue
7
Rights Holder(s)
SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases Vol.19 No.7 (2025) , e0013182
Suggested Citation
Yin F., Meng W., Fan P., Shi Y., Chen S., Liang Y., Yao J., Wang Y., Xue C., Han S., Hao M., Wang Q., Meng Z., Zhuo J., Sun K., Bai Y., Kang T., Wang Z., Liu L., Jiang D., Fang L., Zheng C., Dong J., Ding F., Ma T. Benefits of public awareness in mitigating cystic echinococcosis risk in Western China: A climate and socio-economic perspective. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases Vol.19 No.7 (2025) , e0013182. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0013182 Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/123456789/111430
Title
Benefits of public awareness in mitigating cystic echinococcosis risk in Western China: A climate and socio-economic perspective
Author's Affiliation
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Peking University
Yale University
University at Buffalo, The State University of New York
Chang'an University
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Nuffield Department of Medicine
Academy of Military Sciences
Aerospace Information Research Institute
Yale School of the Environment
Tibet University
Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit
School of Land Science and Technology
Peking University
Yale University
University at Buffalo, The State University of New York
Chang'an University
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Nuffield Department of Medicine
Academy of Military Sciences
Aerospace Information Research Institute
Yale School of the Environment
Tibet University
Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit
School of Land Science and Technology
Corresponding Author(s)
Other Contributor(s)
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The prevalence of cystic echinococcosis (CE), a widespread zoonotic disease, imposes a significant public health burden, especially in western China. However, under the background of global change, how to meet the challenge of the future risk of CE remains unclear. As global climate change, land use changes, and socio-economic factors continue to progress, the spread and intensity of CE may potentially worsen, making it crucial to assess and mitigate future risks. METHODS: By employing Bayesian additive regression trees model to develop risk models for CE in animal hosts (cattle, sheep and dogs) and humans, this study mapped the current distribution of infection risk for CE and projected future risks under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The projections considered both constant and increased rates of public awareness rates regarding CE prevention in the future. RESULTS: Current simulations indicate that the regions with a high risk of CE infection are primarily concentrated in Tibet, Qinghai, Gansu, and Xinjiang. Future projections suggest that heightened CE risks will be experienced in regions such as Yunnan, Gansu, and Sichuan will experience heightened CE risks. Notably, predictions suggest that increased public awareness is estimated to be linked to accompanied by a reduction of the population at risk by 2.72% to 3.35% in western China by 2030. CONCLUSION: This research offers a comprehensive understanding of the future distribution of epidemic risk for CE under climate and socio-economic changes. It highlights that enhancing public awareness regions with high-risk is a critical factor associated with reduced infection rates. Furthermore, the study offers a valuable framework for assessing the risk associated with other zoonotic diseases.