Global evolution of inflammatory bowel disease across epidemiologic stages
Issued Date
2025-01-01
Resource Type
ISSN
00280836
eISSN
14764687
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-105004356666
Journal Title
Nature
Rights Holder(s)
SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
Nature (2025)
Suggested Citation
Hracs L., Windsor J.W., Gorospe J., Cummings M., Coward S., Buie M.J., Quan J., Goddard Q., Caplan L., Markovinović A., Williamson T., Abbey Y., Abdullah M., Abreu M.T., Ahuja V., Raja Ali R.A., Altuwaijri M., Balderramo D., Banerjee R., Benchimol E.I., Bernstein C.N., Brunet-Mas E., Burisch J., Chong V.H., Dotan I., Dutta U., El Ouali S., Forbes A., Forss A., Gearry R., Dao V.H., Hartono J.L., Hilmi I., Hodges P., Jones G.R., Juliao-Baños F., Kaibullayeva J., Kelly P., Kobayashi T., Kotze P.G., Lakatos P.L., Lees C.W., Limsrivilai J., Lo B., Loftus E.V., Ludvigsson J.F., Mak J.W.Y., Miao Y.L., Ng K.K., Okabayashi S., Olén O., Panaccione R., Paudel M.S., Quaresma A.B., Rubin D.T., Simadibrata M., Sun Y., Suzuki H., Toro M., Turner D., Iade B., Wei S.C., Yamamoto-Furusho J.K., Yang S.K., Ng S.C., Kaplan G.G. Global evolution of inflammatory bowel disease across epidemiologic stages. Nature (2025). doi:10.1038/s41586-025-08940-0 Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/20.500.14594/110086
Title
Global evolution of inflammatory bowel disease across epidemiologic stages
Author(s)
Hracs L.
Windsor J.W.
Gorospe J.
Cummings M.
Coward S.
Buie M.J.
Quan J.
Goddard Q.
Caplan L.
Markovinović A.
Williamson T.
Abbey Y.
Abdullah M.
Abreu M.T.
Ahuja V.
Raja Ali R.A.
Altuwaijri M.
Balderramo D.
Banerjee R.
Benchimol E.I.
Bernstein C.N.
Brunet-Mas E.
Burisch J.
Chong V.H.
Dotan I.
Dutta U.
El Ouali S.
Forbes A.
Forss A.
Gearry R.
Dao V.H.
Hartono J.L.
Hilmi I.
Hodges P.
Jones G.R.
Juliao-Baños F.
Kaibullayeva J.
Kelly P.
Kobayashi T.
Kotze P.G.
Lakatos P.L.
Lees C.W.
Limsrivilai J.
Lo B.
Loftus E.V.
Ludvigsson J.F.
Mak J.W.Y.
Miao Y.L.
Ng K.K.
Okabayashi S.
Olén O.
Panaccione R.
Paudel M.S.
Quaresma A.B.
Rubin D.T.
Simadibrata M.
Sun Y.
Suzuki H.
Toro M.
Turner D.
Iade B.
Wei S.C.
Yamamoto-Furusho J.K.
Yang S.K.
Ng S.C.
Kaplan G.G.
Windsor J.W.
Gorospe J.
Cummings M.
Coward S.
Buie M.J.
Quan J.
Goddard Q.
Caplan L.
Markovinović A.
Williamson T.
Abbey Y.
Abdullah M.
Abreu M.T.
Ahuja V.
Raja Ali R.A.
Altuwaijri M.
Balderramo D.
Banerjee R.
Benchimol E.I.
Bernstein C.N.
Brunet-Mas E.
Burisch J.
Chong V.H.
Dotan I.
Dutta U.
El Ouali S.
Forbes A.
Forss A.
Gearry R.
Dao V.H.
Hartono J.L.
Hilmi I.
Hodges P.
Jones G.R.
Juliao-Baños F.
Kaibullayeva J.
Kelly P.
Kobayashi T.
Kotze P.G.
Lakatos P.L.
Lees C.W.
Limsrivilai J.
Lo B.
Loftus E.V.
Ludvigsson J.F.
Mak J.W.Y.
Miao Y.L.
Ng K.K.
Okabayashi S.
Olén O.
Panaccione R.
Paudel M.S.
Quaresma A.B.
Rubin D.T.
Simadibrata M.
Sun Y.
Suzuki H.
Toro M.
Turner D.
Iade B.
Wei S.C.
Yamamoto-Furusho J.K.
Yang S.K.
Ng S.C.
Kaplan G.G.
Author's Affiliation
Instituto Universitario de Ciencias Biomédicas de Córdoba
Conde S. Januário Hospital
Institut d’Investigació i Innovació Parc Taulí (I3PT)
Siriraj Hospital
Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation
Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi
Kyoto University School of Public Health
Asfendiyarov Kazakh National Medical University
Sunway University
Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kazakhstan
SickKids Research Institute
Mayo Clinic College of Medicine and Science
Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas
National Taiwan University Hospital
University of Zambia School of Medicine
Raja Isteri Pengiran Anak Saleha Hospital
Hanoi Medical University
Universitas Indonesia, RSUPN Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo
Asan Medical Center
Hospital Pablo Tobon Uribe
National University Hospital
Københavns Universitet
The Hospital for Sick Children
College of Medicine
Universiti Malaya
Tokai University School of Medicine
The University of Edinburgh
NUS Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine
Semmelweis Egyetem
Kitasato University Kitasato Institute Hospital
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry
Cleveland Clinic Foundation
Universitetssjukhuset Örebro
Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Paraná
Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences
Cedars-Sinai Medical Center
Asian Institute of Gastroenterology India
Copenhagen University Hospital
Western General Hospital
Det Sundhedsvidenskabelige Fakultet
Karolinska Institutet
The University of Chicago Medicine
Max Rady College of Medicine, University of Manitoba
All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi
Instituto Nacional de la Nutrición Salvador Zubiran
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Tel Aviv University
Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells NHS Trust
Chinese University of Hong Kong
Université McGill
Kitasato University School of Medicine
University of Otago, Christchurch
Universidade do Oeste de Santa Catarina
Cumming School of Medicine
Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh
International Organization for the study of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IOIBD)
HIGEA
Microbiota I-Center (MagIC)
Yunnan Province Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases
Cooperativa de Servicios Médicos (COSEM)
First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University
National Academy of Medical Sciences
Conde S. Januário Hospital
Institut d’Investigació i Innovació Parc Taulí (I3PT)
Siriraj Hospital
Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation
Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi
Kyoto University School of Public Health
Asfendiyarov Kazakh National Medical University
Sunway University
Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kazakhstan
SickKids Research Institute
Mayo Clinic College of Medicine and Science
Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas
National Taiwan University Hospital
University of Zambia School of Medicine
Raja Isteri Pengiran Anak Saleha Hospital
Hanoi Medical University
Universitas Indonesia, RSUPN Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo
Asan Medical Center
Hospital Pablo Tobon Uribe
National University Hospital
Københavns Universitet
The Hospital for Sick Children
College of Medicine
Universiti Malaya
Tokai University School of Medicine
The University of Edinburgh
NUS Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine
Semmelweis Egyetem
Kitasato University Kitasato Institute Hospital
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry
Cleveland Clinic Foundation
Universitetssjukhuset Örebro
Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Paraná
Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences
Cedars-Sinai Medical Center
Asian Institute of Gastroenterology India
Copenhagen University Hospital
Western General Hospital
Det Sundhedsvidenskabelige Fakultet
Karolinska Institutet
The University of Chicago Medicine
Max Rady College of Medicine, University of Manitoba
All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi
Instituto Nacional de la Nutrición Salvador Zubiran
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Tel Aviv University
Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells NHS Trust
Chinese University of Hong Kong
Université McGill
Kitasato University School of Medicine
University of Otago, Christchurch
Universidade do Oeste de Santa Catarina
Cumming School of Medicine
Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh
International Organization for the study of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IOIBD)
HIGEA
Microbiota I-Center (MagIC)
Yunnan Province Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases
Cooperativa de Servicios Médicos (COSEM)
First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University
National Academy of Medical Sciences
Corresponding Author(s)
Other Contributor(s)
Abstract
During the twentieth century, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) was considered a disease of early industrialized regions in North America, Europe and Oceania1. At the turn of the twenty-first century, IBD incidence increased in newly industrialized and emerging regions in Africa, Asia and Latin America, while the prevalence in early industrialized regions continued to grow steadily2, 3–4. Changes in the incidence and prevalence denote the evolution of IBD across four epidemiologic stages: stage 1 (emergence), characterized by low incidence and prevalence; stage 2 (acceleration in incidence), marked by rapidly rising incidence and low prevalence; and stage 3 (compounding prevalence), where the incidence decelerates, plateaus or declines while the prevalence steadily increases. A fourth stage (prevalence equilibrium) has been proposed in which the prevalence slope plateaus due to demographic shifts in an ageing IBD population, but it has not yet been evidenced. To date, these stages have remained theoretical, lacking specific numerical indicators to define transition points. Here, using real-world data from 522 population-based studies encompassing 82 global regions and spanning more than a century (1920–2024), we show spatiotemporal transitions across stages 1–3 and model stage 4 progression. Understanding the evolution of IBD across epidemiologic stages enables healthcare systems to better anticipate the future worldwide burden of IBD.