Global, regional, and national trends in hypertensive heart disease burden due to high BMI: a 30-year analysis using GBD 2021 data with projections to 2035
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Issued Date
2026-01-01
Resource Type
eISSN
22962565
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-105030025109
Journal Title
Frontiers in Public Health
Volume
14
Rights Holder(s)
SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
Frontiers in Public Health Vol.14 (2026)
Suggested Citation
Khawar M.B., Maqsood K., Sang R., Malik J., Afzal A., Saeed A., Liaqat F., Naveed H., Fiaz A., Muanprasat C., Zhou J. Global, regional, and national trends in hypertensive heart disease burden due to high BMI: a 30-year analysis using GBD 2021 data with projections to 2035. Frontiers in Public Health Vol.14 (2026). doi:10.3389/fpubh.2026.1701954 Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/123456789/115205
Title
Global, regional, and national trends in hypertensive heart disease burden due to high BMI: a 30-year analysis using GBD 2021 data with projections to 2035
Corresponding Author(s)
Other Contributor(s)
Abstract
Background: High body mass index (BMI)-related hypertensive heart disease (HHD) is increasingly prevalent worldwide. Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data, we analyzed the changes in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and age-standardized rate (ASR) of mortality (ASMR) due to high BMI from 1990 to 2021. Methods: HHD data on high BMI were obtained from GBD 2021 at global, regional, and country levels. Age-standardized DALYs (ASDR) and deaths (ASMR) were calculated, with trends analyzed based on gender, age, and region. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to project the burden through 2035, while the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to assess future trends. Results: From 1990 to 2021, global DALYs increased from 5.67 million to 12.55 million (a 1.81% rise in ASR), and deaths rose from 240,000 to 594,000. Men showed an 8.28% increase in DALYs, while women’s burden remained stable with a slight ASR decline. The highest burden was observed in those aged 80 and older, with DALYs increasing from 1243.80 to 1604.32. Projections suggest gradual decreases in DALYs and ASMR by 2035, although high BMI-related HHD remains a major public health concern. Conclusion: High BMI intensifies HHD prevalence, particularly among men and older adults. Despite projected minor decreases by 2035, rising obesity underscores the ongoing need for public health interventions.