Dynamic Models of Within-Herd Transmission and Recommendation for Vaccination Coverage Requirement in the Case of African Swine Fever in Vietnam
Issued Date
2022-06-01
Resource Type
eISSN
23067381
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-85132361572
Journal Title
Veterinary Sciences
Volume
9
Issue
6
Rights Holder(s)
SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
Veterinary Sciences Vol.9 No.6 (2022)
Suggested Citation
Mai T.N., Sekiguchi S., Huynh T.M.L., Cao T.B.P., Le V.P., Dong V.H., Vu V.A., Wiratsudakul A. Dynamic Models of Within-Herd Transmission and Recommendation for Vaccination Coverage Requirement in the Case of African Swine Fever in Vietnam. Veterinary Sciences Vol.9 No.6 (2022). doi:10.3390/vetsci9060292 Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/20.500.14594/87741
Title
Dynamic Models of Within-Herd Transmission and Recommendation for Vaccination Coverage Requirement in the Case of African Swine Fever in Vietnam
Author's Affiliation
Other Contributor(s)
Abstract
African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious disease that is caused by the ASF virus (ASFV) with a high fatality rate in domestic pigs resulting in a high socio-economic impact. The pig business in Vietnam was recently affected by ASF for the first time. This study thus aimed to develop a disease dynamic model to explain how ASFV spreads in Vietnamese pig populations and suggest a protective vaccine coverage level required to prevent future outbreaks. The outbreak data were collected from ten private small-scale farms within the first wave of ASF outbreaks in Vietnam. Three methods were used to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0 ), including the exponential growth method, maximum likelihood method, and attack rate method. The average R0 values were estimated at 1.49 (95%CI: 1.05–2.21), 1.58 (95%CI: 0.92–2.56), and 1.46 (95%CI: 1.38–1.57), respectively. Based on the worst-case scenario, all pigs in a herd would be infected and removed within 50 days. We suggest vaccinating at least 80% of pigs on each farm once a commercially approved ASF vaccine is available. However, an improvement in biosecurity levels in small-scale farms is still greatly encouraged to prevent the introduction of the virus.
