Climate change expected to increase conflict risks over the next decades across sub-Saharan Africa
Issued Date
2025-08-26
Resource Type
eISSN
29598753
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-105015461747
Journal Title
Innovation Geoscience
Volume
3
Issue
3
Rights Holder(s)
SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
Innovation Geoscience Vol.3 No.3 (2025)
Suggested Citation
Jiang D., Zhuo J., Chen S., Hao M., Xie X., Ide T., Scheffran J., Yao L., Wu W., Jiang H., Wu J., Maystadt J.F., Meng Z., Dong J., Wang Q., Kang T., Sun K., Bai Y., Wang Z., Liu L., Yang C., Ma T., Zhang L., Ding F. Climate change expected to increase conflict risks over the next decades across sub-Saharan Africa. Innovation Geoscience Vol.3 No.3 (2025). doi:10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2025.100139 Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/123456789/112150
Title
Climate change expected to increase conflict risks over the next decades across sub-Saharan Africa
Author's Affiliation
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Peking University
Yale University
University at Buffalo, The State University of New York
Universität Hamburg
Beijing Normal University
Université Catholique de Louvain
China University of Geosciences
Chang'an University
Murdoch University
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Nuffield Department of Medicine
Aerospace Information Research Institute
Guizhou Normal University
Yale School of the Environment
Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique - FNRS
Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit
School of Land Science and Technology
Department of Economics, Lancaster University Management School
Peking University
Yale University
University at Buffalo, The State University of New York
Universität Hamburg
Beijing Normal University
Université Catholique de Louvain
China University of Geosciences
Chang'an University
Murdoch University
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Nuffield Department of Medicine
Aerospace Information Research Institute
Guizhou Normal University
Yale School of the Environment
Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique - FNRS
Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit
School of Land Science and Technology
Department of Economics, Lancaster University Management School
Corresponding Author(s)
Other Contributor(s)
Abstract
While climate change is increasingly recognized as a driver of conflict risks, most research focuses on past correlations, hence limiting our ability to project future climate-related security risks. We use machine learning techniques to predict the spatiotemporal dynamics of conflict risks and estimate the human population that would be exposed to these risks in the 2030s, 2040s, and 2050s. Our results demonstrate that climate change is associated with increasing risks of conflict over the next decades and that the change of projected spatial and temporal distribution of conflict risk will be heterogeneous, depending on conflict types and climate scenarios. We estimate that 0.5-1.7 billion people may live at high risk zones of conflict across sub-Saharan Africa by the 2050s, which is an increase of at least 391 million compared to today. Detecting such risks early provides sufficient time to plan ahead and implement mitigation strategies.