Global Financial Market Spillovers to the Dhaka Stock Exchange: Strategic Insights From Trade-Friendly Nations

Abstract

This study explores the strategic implications of global financial market spillovers on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), with a particular emphasis on the financial markets of Bangladesh's key trade partners. Leveraging daily price data, the analysis focuses on major equity indices from Bangladesh, the USA, China, Japan, Russia, and India, in addition to global green and commodity indices. The study employs advanced methodologies, including value at risk (VaR), conditional value at risk (CVaR), continuous wavelet transforms (CWT), wavelet coherence (WC), and time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR). The findings reveal that while the DSE demonstrates lower downside risk relative to global indices, certain global assets, such as WTICO, exhibit heightened tail risk. The wavelet analyses underscore significant volatility and co-movements among key assets, particularly during periods of global crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict, highlighting the profound interconnectedness between global and regional markets and the DSE. Notably, global green and commodity assets provide potential safe haven benefits for Bangladeshi investors during times of crisis. The TVP-VAR model further highlights the dynamic nature of volatility spillovers, identifying global green indices as key volatility transmitters, while the DSE retains robust internal market dynamics with reciprocal spillovers between DSE30 and DSEB. These insights suggest that Bangladesh should strategically integrate green and commodity assets into its financial markets to bolster market stability and protect investors amidst global uncertainties.