Walking the path: exploring the pathways of emerging viral diseases
Issued Date
2026-09-01
Resource Type
ISSN
00139351
eISSN
10960953
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-105041994737
Journal Title
Environmental Research
Volume
305
Rights Holder(s)
SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
Environmental Research Vol.305 (2026)
Suggested Citation
Gavotte L., Gaucherel C., Goubier T., Frutos R. Walking the path: exploring the pathways of emerging viral diseases. Environmental Research Vol.305 (2026). doi:10.1016/j.envres.2026.125018 Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/123456789/117466
Title
Walking the path: exploring the pathways of emerging viral diseases
Author(s)
Author's Affiliation
Xiamen University
Universitas Airlangga
Faculty of Medicine Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University
CEA, Institut LIST
Botanique & Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations
Observation Spatiale, Modèles & Science Impliquée
Interactions Hôtes-Vecteurs-Parasites-Environnement Dans les Maladies Tropicales Négligées dues aux Trypanosomatides (INTERTRYP)
Universitas Airlangga
Faculty of Medicine Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University
CEA, Institut LIST
Botanique & Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations
Observation Spatiale, Modèles & Science Impliquée
Interactions Hôtes-Vecteurs-Parasites-Environnement Dans les Maladies Tropicales Négligées dues aux Trypanosomatides (INTERTRYP)
Corresponding Author(s)
Other Contributor(s)
Abstract
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the limitations of our current understanding of the underlying mechanisms driving the emergence of new epidemics. The circulation theory has provided a hypothesis for explaining the mechanism of viral disease emergence in humans. We modelled the circulation theory to test whether the proposed mechanism is plausible. Method: We tested scientific theories of viral disease emergence using an approach implemented in engineering and industry to assess the validity and plausibility of a model. We used an EDEN possibilistic modeling framework based on a qualitative and discrete event formalism. Results: A possibilistic model based on discrete-event systems validated the circulation theory of viral zoonotic diseases emergence. The model explored all potential pathways within a pathosystem and analysed the dynamics of known zoonotic RNA viruses and one DNA virus (Mpox). Five different pathways, all relevant to the circulation theory, can explain all dynamics of viral disease emergence. Conclusion: This works shows that simple biological pathways can easily explain the emergence of zoonotic viruses. It also shows that the circulation model is plausible and meets the requirements to pass the Petri's nets test. This work also shows that the circulation can be broken down into several pathways matching known viral processes.