Publication:
Temporal patterns and a disease forecasting model of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Jakarta based on 10 years of surveillance data

1

Issued Date

2013-05-22

Resource Type

Article

ISSN

01251562

Other identifier(s)

2-s2.0-84877863747

Rights

Mahidol University

Rights Holder(s)

SCOPUS

Bibliographic Citation

Southeast Asian Journal of Tropical Medicine and Public Health. Vol.44, No.2 (2013), 206

Suggested Citation

Monika S. Sitepu, Jaranit Kaewkungwal, Nathanej Luplerdlop, Ngamphol Soonthornworasiri, Tassanee Silawan, Supawadee Poungsombat, Saranath Lawpoolsri Temporal patterns and a disease forecasting model of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Jakarta based on 10 years of surveillance data. Southeast Asian Journal of Tropical Medicine and Public Health. Vol.44, No.2 (2013), 206. Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/123456789/32340

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Title

Temporal patterns and a disease forecasting model of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Jakarta based on 10 years of surveillance data

Author(s)

Monika S. Sitepu
 Jaranit Kaewkungwal
 Nathanej Luplerdlop
 Ngamphol Soonthornworasiri
 Tassanee Silawan
 Supawadee Poungsombat
 Saranath Lawpoolsri

Other Contributor(s)

Ministry of Health, Republic of Indonesia
 Mahidol University
 Thailand Ministry of Public Health

Abstract

This study aimed to describe the temporal patterns of dengue transmission in Jakarta from 2001 to 2010, using data from the national surveillance system. The Box-Jenkins forecasting technique was used to develop a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model for the study period and subsequently applied to forecast DHF incidence in 2011 in Jakarta Utara, Jakarta Pusat, Jakarta Barat, and the municipalities of Jakarta Province. Dengue incidence in 2011, based on the forecasting model was predicted to increase from the previous year.

Keyword(s)

Medicine

Availability

URI

https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/123456789/32340

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Scopus 2011-2015