Novel estimation of African swine fever transmission parameters within smallholder villages in Lao P.D.R
Issued Date
2024-06-01
Resource Type
ISSN
00494747
eISSN
15737438
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-85193545458
Pubmed ID
38758410
Journal Title
Tropical Animal Health and Production
Volume
56
Issue
5
Rights Holder(s)
SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
Tropical Animal Health and Production Vol.56 No.5 (2024)
Suggested Citation
Matsumoto N., Ward M.P., Halasa T., Schemann K., Khounsy S., Douangngeun B., Thepagna W., Phommachanh P., Siengsanan-Lamont J., Young J.R., Toribio J.A.L.M.L., Bush R.D., Blacksell S.D. Novel estimation of African swine fever transmission parameters within smallholder villages in Lao P.D.R. Tropical Animal Health and Production Vol.56 No.5 (2024). doi:10.1007/s11250-024-04012-z Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/123456789/98485
Title
Novel estimation of African swine fever transmission parameters within smallholder villages in Lao P.D.R
Corresponding Author(s)
Other Contributor(s)
Abstract
African Swine Fever (ASF) disease transmission parameters are crucial for making response and control decisions when faced with an outbreak, yet they are poorly quantified for smallholder and village contexts within Southeast Asia. Whilst disease-specific factors − such as latent and infectious periods − should remain reasonably consistent, host, environmental and management factors are likely to affect the rate of disease spread. These differences are investigated using Approximate Bayesian Computation with Sequential Monte-Carlo methods to provide disease parameter estimates in four naïve pig populations in villages of Lao People’s Democratic Republic. The villages represent smallholder pig farmers of the Northern province of Oudomxay and the Southern province of Savannakhet, and the model utilised field mortality data to validate the transmission parameter estimates over the course of multiple model generations. The basic reproductive number between-pigs was estimated to range from 3.08 to 7.80, whilst the latent and infectious periods were consistent with those published in the literature for similar genotypes in the region (4.72 to 6.19 days and 2.63 to 5.50 days, respectively). These findings demonstrate that smallholder village pigs interact similarly to commercial pigs, however the spread of disease may occur slightly slower than in commercial study groups. Furthermore, the findings demonstrated that despite diversity across the study groups, the disease behaved in a consistent manner. This data can be used in disease control programs or for future modelling of ASF in smallholder contexts.