Global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity, 1990–2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Issued Date

2025-03-08

Resource Type

Article

ISSN

01406736

eISSN

1474547X

DOI

10.1016/S0140-6736(25)00355-1

Scopus ID

2-s2.0-85219548783

Pubmed ID

40049186

Journal Title

Lancet

Volume

405

Issue

10481

Start Page

813

End Page

838

Rights Holder(s)

SCOPUS

Bibliographic Citation

Lancet Vol.405 No.10481 (2025) , 813-838

Suggested Citation

Kerr J.A., Cini K.I., Francis K.L., Sawyer S.M., Azzopardi P.S., Patton G.C., Dhungel B., Jebasingh F.K., Abate Y.H., Abbas N., Fekadu G., Ming W.K., Abd Al Magied A.H.A., Dutta S., Shahwan M.J., Hassan N., ElHafeez S.A., Ghazy R.M., Abd-Elsalam S., Abdollahi A., Kabir A., Alimohamadi Y., Arabloo J., Bastan M.M., Dodangeh M., Dorostkar F., Behnagh A., Khalili P., Kheirkhah M., Shool S., Abdoun M., Abdulah D.M., Ahmed M.S., Abdulkader R.S., Abdullahi A., Awotidebe A.W., Usman J.S., Gadanya M.A., Abeywickrama H.M., Abie A., Adane M.M., Netsere H.B., Alemayehu B.A., Bayih M.T., Mengistie E.A., Abiodun O., Abohashem S., Ebrahimi A., Zheng D.X., Kim M.S., Aly S., Chi G., Elgendy I.Y., Kokkorakis M., Pradhan P.M.S., Rohloff P., Tye S.C., Zhong A., Abtahi D., Salimi S., Aghamiri S., Ajami M., Mohammadi M.A., Ghadirian F., Hadian Z., Hashempour R., Karimzadhagh S., Masrouri S., Mohammadzadeh I., Niknam M., Nikoobar A., Rashidi M.M., Rahmanian M., Rasouli-Saravani A., Tabatabai S., Abualruz H., Abubakar B., Shittu A., Folayan M.O., Oyebola K., Abu-Gharbieh E., Ramadan M.M., Alzoubi K.H., Omar H.A., Arumugam A., Barqawi H.J., Dash N.R., Saber-Ayad M.M., Bustanji Y., Eladl M.A., Saddik B.A., Saleh M.A., Sharif-Askari F., Soliman S.S.M., Aburuz S., Ahmad M.M., Abukhadijah H.J., Hamad H.A., Alansari A., Singh K. Global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity, 1990–2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Vol.405 No.10481 (2025) , 813-838. 838. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(25)00355-1 Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/20.500.14594/110630

Title

Global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity, 1990–2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Author(s)

Kerr J.A.
 Cini K.I.
 Francis K.L.
 Sawyer S.M.
 Azzopardi P.S.
 Patton G.C.
 Dhungel B.
 Jebasingh F.K.
 Abate Y.H.
 Abbas N.
 Fekadu G.
 Ming W.K.
 Abd Al Magied A.H.A.
 Dutta S.
 Shahwan M.J.
 Hassan N.
 ElHafeez S.A.
 Ghazy R.M.
 Abd-Elsalam S.
 Abdollahi A.
 Kabir A.
 Alimohamadi Y.
 Arabloo J.
 Bastan M.M.
 Dodangeh M.
 Dorostkar F.
 Behnagh A.
 Khalili P.
 Kheirkhah M.
 Shool S.
 Abdoun M.
 Abdulah D.M.
 Ahmed M.S.
 Abdulkader R.S.
 Abdullahi A.
 Awotidebe A.W.
 Usman J.S.
 Gadanya M.A.
 Abeywickrama H.M.
 Abie A.
 Adane M.M.
 Netsere H.B.
 Alemayehu B.A.
 Bayih M.T.
 Mengistie E.A.
 Abiodun O.
 Abohashem S.
 Ebrahimi A.
 Zheng D.X.
 Kim M.S.
 Aly S.
 Chi G.
 Elgendy I.Y.
 Kokkorakis M.
 Pradhan P.M.S.
 Rohloff P.
 Tye S.C.
 Zhong A.
 Abtahi D.
 Salimi S.
 Aghamiri S.
 Ajami M.
 Mohammadi M.A.
 Ghadirian F.
 Hadian Z.
 Hashempour R.
 Karimzadhagh S.
 Masrouri S.
 Mohammadzadeh I.
 Niknam M.
 Nikoobar A.
 Rashidi M.M.
 Rahmanian M.
 Rasouli-Saravani A.
 Tabatabai S.
 Abualruz H.
 Abubakar B.
 Shittu A.
 Folayan M.O.
 Oyebola K.
 Abu-Gharbieh E.
 Ramadan M.M.
 Alzoubi K.H.
 Omar H.A.
 Arumugam A.
 Barqawi H.J.
 Dash N.R.
 Saber-Ayad M.M.
 Bustanji Y.
 Eladl M.A.
 Saddik B.A.
 Saleh M.A.
 Sharif-Askari F.
 Soliman S.S.M.
 Aburuz S.
 Ahmad M.M.
 Abukhadijah H.J.
 Hamad H.A.
 Alansari A.
 Singh K.

Author's Affiliation

Wuqu’ Kawoq Maya Health Alliance
 Poursina Hospital, GUMS
 Research Center for Social Determinants of Health, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences
 National Nutrition and Food Sciences Technology Research Institute
 King Khalid University
 Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center
 Aleta Wondo Hospital
 Rumailah Hospital
 IUMS Minimally Invasive Surgery Research Center
 Faculty of Medicine
 Alexandria University
 Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center
 Murdoch Children's Research Institute
 Babcock University
 Cairo University
 Wollega University
 Indian Council of Medical Research
 Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital
 IUMS Health Management and Economics Research Center
 Usmanu Danfodiyo University
 Federal University, Wukari
 Faculty of Pharmacy
 University of Kentucky
 Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Research Institute for Endocrine Science
 Nigerian Institute of Medical Research
 United Arab Emirates University
 Harvard University
 Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
 University of KwaZulu-Natal
 University of Melbourne
 University of Otago, Christchurch
 Broad Institute
 Tribhuvan University
 Université Ferhat Abbas Sétif 1
 College of Medicine
 Mansoura University
 Christian Medical College, Vellore
 Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences
 Harvard Medical School
 Chinese Academy of Sciences
 Hamad Medical Corporation
 Jordan University of Science and Technology
 The University of Hong Kong
 Iran University of Medical Sciences
 Manipal Academy of Higher Education
 Al-Zaytoonah University of Jordan
 Bahir Dar University
 Boston Children's Hospital
 Faculty of Medicine
 The University of Jordan
 University of Gondar
 Faculty of Pharmacy
 Faculty of Medicine
 Obafemi Awolowo University
 University of Sharjah
 University of Duhok
 The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
 Massachusetts General Hospital
 Ajman University
 UNSW Sydney
 School of Medicine (IUMS)
 Bayero University

Corresponding Author(s)

Kerr J.A.

Other Contributor(s)

Mahidol University

Abstract

Background: Overweight and obesity is a global epidemic. Forecasting future trajectories of the epidemic is crucial for providing an evidence base for policy change. In this study, we examine the historical trends of the global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity from 1990 to 2021 and forecast the future trajectories to 2050. Methods: Leveraging established methodology from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, we estimated the prevalence of overweight and obesity among individuals aged 25 years and older by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2050. Retrospective and current prevalence trends were derived based on both self-reported and measured anthropometric data extracted from 1350 unique sources, which include survey microdata and reports, as well as published literature. Specific adjustment was applied to correct for self-report bias. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models were used to synthesise data, leveraging both spatial and temporal correlation in epidemiological trends, to optimise the comparability of results across time and geographies. To generate forecast estimates, we used forecasts of the Socio-demographic Index and temporal correlation patterns presented as annualised rate of change to inform future trajectories. We considered a reference scenario assuming the continuation of historical trends. Findings: Rates of overweight and obesity increased at the global and regional levels, and in all nations, between 1990 and 2021. In 2021, an estimated 1·00 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·989–1·01) adult males and 1·11 billion (1·10–1·12) adult females had overweight and obesity. China had the largest population of adults with overweight and obesity (402 million [397–407] individuals), followed by India (180 million [167–194]) and the USA (172 million [169–174]). The highest age-standardised prevalence of overweight and obesity was observed in countries in Oceania and north Africa and the Middle East, with many of these countries reporting prevalence of more than 80% in adults. Compared with 1990, the global prevalence of obesity had increased by 155·1% (149·8–160·3) in males and 104·9% (95% UI 100·9–108·8) in females. The most rapid rise in obesity prevalence was observed in the north Africa and the Middle East super-region, where age-standardised prevalence rates in males more than tripled and in females more than doubled. Assuming the continuation of historical trends, by 2050, we forecast that the total number of adults living with overweight and obesity will reach 3·80 billion (95% UI 3·39–4·04), over half of the likely global adult population at that time. While China, India, and the USA will continue to constitute a large proportion of the global population with overweight and obesity, the number in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region is forecasted to increase by 254·8% (234·4–269·5). In Nigeria specifically, the number of adults with overweight and obesity is forecasted to rise to 141 million (121–162) by 2050, making it the country with the fourth-largest population with overweight and obesity. Interpretation: No country to date has successfully curbed the rising rates of adult overweight and obesity. Without immediate and effective intervention, overweight and obesity will continue to increase globally. Particularly in Asia and Africa, driven by growing populations, the number of individuals with overweight and obesity is forecast to rise substantially. These regions will face a considerable increase in obesity-related disease burden. Merely acknowledging obesity as a global health issue would be negligent on the part of global health and public health practitioners; more aggressive and targeted measures are required to address this crisis, as obesity is one of the foremost avertible risks to health now and in the future and poses an unparalleled threat of premature disease and death at local, national, and global levels. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Keyword(s)

Medicine

Availability

URI

https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/20.500.14594/110630

Collections

Scopus 2025