Extreme weather events and dengue in Southeast Asia: A regionally-representative analysis of 291 locations from 1998 to 2021
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Issued Date
2025-09-01
Resource Type
eISSN
19352735
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-105015804898
Pubmed ID
40906771
Journal Title
Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases
Volume
19
Issue
9
Rights Holder(s)
SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases Vol.19 No.9 (2025) , e0012649
Suggested Citation
Ith S., Seposo X., Phy V., Tantrakarnapa K., Apostol G.L.C., Dhewantara P.W., Hod R., Hassan M.R., Othman H., Sahani M., Lim J.T., Nhung H.H., Tuan N.H., Nghia N.D., Takemura T., Nouhak I., Chua P.L.C., Cook A.R., Colón-González F.J., Hashizume M. Extreme weather events and dengue in Southeast Asia: A regionally-representative analysis of 291 locations from 1998 to 2021. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases Vol.19 No.9 (2025) , e0012649. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0012649 Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/123456789/112156
Title
Extreme weather events and dengue in Southeast Asia: A regionally-representative analysis of 291 locations from 1998 to 2021
Author's Affiliation
National University of Singapore
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
University of East Anglia
Nagasaki University
Graduate School of Medicine
Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional
National Institute of Infectious Diseases
Graduate School of Medicine
Wellcome Trust
Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University
Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine
Faculty of Medicine, UKM
Ateneo de Manila University
University of Cyberjaya
National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology Hanoi
Ministry of Health Laos
Indeed Japan
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
University of East Anglia
Nagasaki University
Graduate School of Medicine
Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional
National Institute of Infectious Diseases
Graduate School of Medicine
Wellcome Trust
Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University
Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine
Faculty of Medicine, UKM
Ateneo de Manila University
University of Cyberjaya
National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology Hanoi
Ministry of Health Laos
Indeed Japan
Corresponding Author(s)
Other Contributor(s)
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Climate change, leading to more frequent and intense extreme weather events (EWEs), could significantly impact dengue transmission. However, the associations between EWEs and dengue remains underexplored in the Southeast Asia (SEA) region. We investigated the association between selected EWEs (i.e., heatwaves, extremely wet, and drought conditions) and dengue in the SEA region. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Monthly dengue case reports were obtained from 291 locations across eight SEA countries between 1998 and 2021. Heatwaves are defined as the monthly total number of days where temperatures exceed the 95th percentile for at least two consecutive days. Droughts and extremely wet conditions are defined by a self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI). We implemented a generalized additive mixed model coupled with a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the association between each EWE and dengue. Months with fewer than 12 heatwave days increased dengue risk with delayed effect after two months lag, compared with months without any heatwave. Highest dengue risk is at 7 heatwave days (RR = 1·28; 95%CI: 1·19,1·38). Compared to normal conditions (i.e. scPDSI = 0), drought conditions (i.e. scPDSI = -4) were positively associated with dengue risk (RR = 1·85; 95%CI: 1·73,1·99), while extremely wet conditions (i.e. scPDSI = 4) have reduced dengue risk (RR = 0·89; 95%CI: 0·87,0·91). Although the findings of this study are significant, its limitations arise from the inconsistency of dengue case reporting, which might complicate dengue risk estimation. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that the delayed effect of heatwaves and drought conditions magnifies the risk of dengue in the SEA region. The findings highlight the need for public health interventions to mitigate the potential dengue risks posed by EWEs in the context of climate change in SEA. Future research should investigate the factors influencing variations in the EWE-dengue association across the region to support the development of tailored, location-specific mitigation and prevention strategies.