Extreme weather events and dengue in Southeast Asia: A regionally-representative analysis of 291 locations from 1998 to 2021

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Climate change, leading to more frequent and intense extreme weather events (EWEs), could significantly impact dengue transmission. However, the associations between EWEs and dengue remains underexplored in the Southeast Asia (SEA) region. We investigated the association between selected EWEs (i.e., heatwaves, extremely wet, and drought conditions) and dengue in the SEA region. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Monthly dengue case reports were obtained from 291 locations across eight SEA countries between 1998 and 2021. Heatwaves are defined as the monthly total number of days where temperatures exceed the 95th percentile for at least two consecutive days. Droughts and extremely wet conditions are defined by a self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI). We implemented a generalized additive mixed model coupled with a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the association between each EWE and dengue. Months with fewer than 12 heatwave days increased dengue risk with delayed effect after two months lag, compared with months without any heatwave. Highest dengue risk is at 7 heatwave days (RR = 1·28; 95%CI: 1·19,1·38). Compared to normal conditions (i.e. scPDSI = 0), drought conditions (i.e. scPDSI = -4) were positively associated with dengue risk (RR = 1·85; 95%CI: 1·73,1·99), while extremely wet conditions (i.e. scPDSI = 4) have reduced dengue risk (RR = 0·89; 95%CI: 0·87,0·91). Although the findings of this study are significant, its limitations arise from the inconsistency of dengue case reporting, which might complicate dengue risk estimation. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that the delayed effect of heatwaves and drought conditions magnifies the risk of dengue in the SEA region. The findings highlight the need for public health interventions to mitigate the potential dengue risks posed by EWEs in the context of climate change in SEA. Future research should investigate the factors influencing variations in the EWE-dengue association across the region to support the development of tailored, location-specific mitigation and prevention strategies.