Head and Neck Cancer in Southeast Asia: 2022 Incidence, Mortality, and Projections to 2050

Abstract

Objectives: To characterize the incidence, mortality, and disparities in head and neck cancer (HNC) across Southeast Asia (SEA) in 2022 and project trends to 2050 to inform cancer planning. Methods: We conducted a population-based analysis using 2022 Global Cancer Observatory data from 11 SEA countries. We analyzed cancers of the lip and oral cavity, salivary glands, oropharynx, nasopharynx, hypopharynx, larynx, and thyroid. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates (ASIR and ASMR) were calculated using the Segi-Doll world standard. Projections to 2050 were based on demographic changes using UN World Population Prospects data, assuming stable incidence and mortality rates. Results: Myanmar had the highest oral cancer rates (ASIR: 6.6 males, 2.6 females; ASMR: 3.9 males, 1.6 females). Elevated salivary gland cancer incidence was observed in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Singapore. Oropharyngeal cancers showed strong male predominance in Myanmar (ASIR ratio: 10:1). Nasopharyngeal cancer incidence in Brunei and Indonesia exceeded global averages (ASIR: 9.8 and 9.6 males). Projections to 2050 estimate 47,000 new male cases and 28,200 new female cases in Indonesia, with 30,600 male deaths and 12,200 female deaths. While SEA's overall ASIR for HNC (18.0) was comparable to the global average (18.9), the ASMR was significantly higher (9.5 vs. 5.3). Conclusions: The rising burden of HNC in SEA highlights urgent disparities in incidence and mortality. Targeted prevention, early detection, and investment in cancer care systems are essential to mitigate future disease burden and improve outcomes. Level of Evidence: Level III—Epidemiologic study using population-based registry data.