Applying System Dynamics to Enhance Scenario-based Technology Roadmapping: Analysis Framework and Case Demonstration
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Issued Date
2026-01-01
Resource Type
ISSN
00189391
eISSN
15580040
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-105029929354
Journal Title
IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management
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SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management (2026)
Suggested Citation
Tansurat P., Gerdsri N. Applying System Dynamics to Enhance Scenario-based Technology Roadmapping: Analysis Framework and Case Demonstration. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management (2026). doi:10.1109/TEM.2026.3662723 Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/123456789/115169
Title
Applying System Dynamics to Enhance Scenario-based Technology Roadmapping: Analysis Framework and Case Demonstration
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Author's Affiliation
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Abstract
Technology Roadmapping (TRM) is a widely used strategic planning tool in technology-intensive industries. However, the conventional roadmapping approach faces limitations under conditions of high complexity and uncertainty. This study proposes an integrated framework that combines System Dynamics (SD) with scenario-based TRM to enhance roadmap robustness and adaptability. By leveraging SD's capability to model nonlinear interactions and simulate multiple future conditions, the framework provides quantitative insights that strengthen scenario development and support evidence-based decision making. A step-by-step application is demonstrated through the development of roadmaps for future medical devices and technologies. Verification and validation of the SD model confirm its reliability prior to translating simulation outcomes into scenario-based roadmaps. The results demonstrate how the integrated approach facilitates the development of alternative technology roadmaps, representing potential development pathways that better anticipate dynamic changes, enhance stakeholder alignment, and reduce the time required to assess the impacts of shifting conditions. The proposed framework improves the capability of technology roadmapping to address complex and uncertain environments, supporting organizations in mitigating risks, identifying emerging opportunities, and strengthening their strategic resilience.