Applying System Dynamics to Enhance Scenario-based Technology Roadmapping: Analysis Framework and Case Demonstration

Abstract

Technology Roadmapping (TRM) is a widely used strategic planning tool in technology-intensive industries. However, the conventional roadmapping approach faces limitations under conditions of high complexity and uncertainty. This study proposes an integrated framework that combines System Dynamics (SD) with scenario-based TRM to enhance roadmap robustness and adaptability. By leveraging SD's capability to model nonlinear interactions and simulate multiple future conditions, the framework provides quantitative insights that strengthen scenario development and support evidence-based decision making. A step-by-step application is demonstrated through the development of roadmaps for future medical devices and technologies. Verification and validation of the SD model confirm its reliability prior to translating simulation outcomes into scenario-based roadmaps. The results demonstrate how the integrated approach facilitates the development of alternative technology roadmaps, representing potential development pathways that better anticipate dynamic changes, enhance stakeholder alignment, and reduce the time required to assess the impacts of shifting conditions. The proposed framework improves the capability of technology roadmapping to address complex and uncertain environments, supporting organizations in mitigating risks, identifying emerging opportunities, and strengthening their strategic resilience.