Food choices and body weight changes: A mathematical model analysis

Abstract

A short–term stochastic model of minute–by–minute food intake is formulated, incorporating the interaction of appetite, insulinemia, and glycemia in determining the size and frequency of meals. By assuming a person would maintain his or her eating habit over time, we extend the simulation period to several years and explore scenarios based on food choices (high–fiber vs. high–carbohydrate) or appetite suppression. The model coherently predicts increments or decrements in body weight in the long–term when altering appetite in the short–term. Further, the model shows how food type choice, at the same appetite drive and habitual proposed meal size, induces macroscopic changes in body weight over a very few years. The model is innovative in that it connects the minute–by–minute behavior of the individual with long–term changes in metabolic compensation, in insulin sensitivity, in glycemic variability, and eventually in body size, thus helping to interpret the long–term development of Type 2 diabetes mellitus resulting from an unhealthy lifestyle.