Future temperature-related labour loss due to premature deaths: a multi-country study
Issued Date
2026-04-01
Resource Type
ISSN
00139351
eISSN
10960953
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-105030583852
Pubmed ID
41707967
Journal Title
Environmental Research
Volume
296
Rights Holder(s)
SCOPUS
Bibliographic Citation
Environmental Research Vol.296 (2026)
Suggested Citation
Wen B., Ademi Z., Wu Y., Xu R., Yu P., Liu Y., Yu W., Ye T., Huang W., Yang Z., Zhang Y., Zhang Y., Ju K., Hales S., Lavigne E., Saldiva P.H.N., Coêlho M.d.S.Z.S., Matus P., Kim H., Tantrakarnapa K., Kliengchuay W., Capon A., Bi P., Jalaludin B., Hu W., Green D., Zhang Y., Arblaster J., Phung D., Guo Y., Li S. Future temperature-related labour loss due to premature deaths: a multi-country study. Environmental Research Vol.296 (2026). doi:10.1016/j.envres.2026.124045 Retrieved from: https://repository.li.mahidol.ac.th/handle/123456789/115412
Title
Future temperature-related labour loss due to premature deaths: a multi-country study
Author's Affiliation
Universidade de São Paulo
The University of Sydney
The University of Queensland
Monash University
UNSW Sydney
Seoul National University
University of Ottawa
Queensland University of Technology
University of Otago
Itä-Suomen yliopisto
Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences
The University of Sydney School of Public Health
Health Canada
Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University
Universidad de los Andes, Chile
Chongqing Emergency Medical Center
The University of Sydney
The University of Queensland
Monash University
UNSW Sydney
Seoul National University
University of Ottawa
Queensland University of Technology
University of Otago
Itä-Suomen yliopisto
Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences
The University of Sydney School of Public Health
Health Canada
Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University
Universidad de los Andes, Chile
Chongqing Emergency Medical Center
Corresponding Author(s)
Other Contributor(s)
Abstract
The ongoing climate change is expected to lead to a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of climate extremes. However, the impact of cold and hot temperatures on labour loss, through causing premature deaths in the future, remains largely unknown. We collected historic daily all-cause mortality data during 1986–2019 from 1066 locations in seven countries. A two-stage time-series approach was applied to estimate associations between non-optimum temperatures and the productivity-adjusted life year (PALY) loss due to premature deaths. These associations were then combined with projected daily temperatures under three climate change scenarios from 2021 to 2100 to quantify future PALY losses attributable to temperatures. Overall, we projected an increase in heat-related PALY loss and a decrease in cold-related PALY loss in the future. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the heat-related PALY loss is projected to increase by 7.5% by the end of 2100 compared to the historical period (2001-2020), resulting in a net increase in excess PALY loss of 6.8%, greater than the net changes projected under the SSP3-7.0 (5.7%) and SSP1-2.6 (0.6%) scenarios. Brazil and Thailand were projected to experience an increase in excess heat-related PALY loss, while a reduction in excess cold-related PALY loss was projected to be most prominent in Thailand. The magnitude of the change in both heat- and cold-related PALY loss was largely affected by socioeconomic factors, such as GDP per capita and the deprivation level. This study provides a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on labour loss and provides evidence to inform targeted adaptation strategies and policy responses aimed at mitigating the socioeconomic impacts of climate change.