Future temperature-related labour loss due to premature deaths: a multi-country study

Abstract

The ongoing climate change is expected to lead to a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of climate extremes. However, the impact of cold and hot temperatures on labour loss, through causing premature deaths in the future, remains largely unknown. We collected historic daily all-cause mortality data during 1986–2019 from 1066 locations in seven countries. A two-stage time-series approach was applied to estimate associations between non-optimum temperatures and the productivity-adjusted life year (PALY) loss due to premature deaths. These associations were then combined with projected daily temperatures under three climate change scenarios from 2021 to 2100 to quantify future PALY losses attributable to temperatures. Overall, we projected an increase in heat-related PALY loss and a decrease in cold-related PALY loss in the future. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the heat-related PALY loss is projected to increase by 7.5% by the end of 2100 compared to the historical period (2001-2020), resulting in a net increase in excess PALY loss of 6.8%, greater than the net changes projected under the SSP3-7.0 (5.7%) and SSP1-2.6 (0.6%) scenarios. Brazil and Thailand were projected to experience an increase in excess heat-related PALY loss, while a reduction in excess cold-related PALY loss was projected to be most prominent in Thailand. The magnitude of the change in both heat- and cold-related PALY loss was largely affected by socioeconomic factors, such as GDP per capita and the deprivation level. This study provides a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on labour loss and provides evidence to inform targeted adaptation strategies and policy responses aimed at mitigating the socioeconomic impacts of climate change.